Crash Game Odds Explained
Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you already know how wildly popular Crash games are in the online crypto casino world, and – let’s be honest – they are totally addictive, particularly as they’re (on the face of it) so easy to play. The premise is simple… just watch the multiplier climb as high as you dare, holding your nerve and aiming to cash out before the crash happens. Straightforward, high-octane, and a fast way to bank a win without applying anything more than great timing.
But the more you play, the more you’ll notice that most of the rounds end before 2x, so what’s going on underneath? We’re going to deep-dive into the maths behind the game to give you that valuable knowledge upgrade you can use to become a better player! Below, crash game odds are explained at their finest!
Multipliers Equal Probability
OK, so the multiplier is basically a measure of probability, and once you can get your head around the sums, you’ll start to see why low multipliers tend to crop up so frequently (and why the 10x and above rounds don’t).
To get casino crash game odds explained simply, look at the house edge. So, say you’re playing a crash game with a house edge of 1pc, the sum you need is 0.99 divided by the multiplier itself.
So, you want to calculate the likelihood of reaching 2x, then 0.99 / 2 = 49.5%. Simple, right? This means just under half of all rounds will crash out before the 2x multiplier kicks in.
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Applying the Crash Multiplier Calculation
This handy sum works for all levels of multipliers to tell you the chance of actually reaching them (and they definitely put the reality of these games into the spotlight!)
| Target multiplier | Approx. chance you’ll reach it |
| 1.2x | 82.5% |
| 1.5x | 66.0% |
| 2x | 49.5% |
| 3x | 33.0% |
| 5x | 19.8% |
| 10x | 9.9% |
| 20x | 4.95% |
| 50x | 1.98% |
| 100x | 0.99% |
Once you get the hang of this calculation, you can start to visualise the impacts on your game time. The higher you set your multiplier target, the smaller the reality is that you’ll actually get there. The 10x target has basically a one in ten chance of being reached, and the 100x is about one in 100.
But Isn’t That Massive Multiplier Round Due?
Nope. The software underlying Crash is totally random, and every round is independent.
So if you try to chase wins after a string of losses because you think a higher multiplier is just around the corner… it isn’t (probably), and you’re on a fast track to burning through your funds. This is newbie gaming behaviour, and casinos rely on it to make money!
What 100,000 Crash Rounds Look Like: A Simulation
We asked a particularly smart person in our team to show what 100,000 simulated rounds might look like if we used that simple 1% house edge example above.
The results showed:
- The medium crash kicked in at c 1.97x in the simulation, so around half finished under this level.
- Distribution spread out more as the multiplier increased, so there were lots of smaller crashes and far fewer really big ones (meaning most rounds are low).
- Over 50,000 rounds ended below 2x, and just 1,000 hit 100x or above. The high multipliers really are just a small part of the game’s overall distribution.
FAQ
Why does Crash tend to have low multipliers?
Basically, it’s down to the probability curve. You need to stay in the game far longer to hit a 5x multiplier compared to a double, for example. So you’ll see most crash out at under 2x, and a very occasional 100x round – it’s all built into the model.
Can you boost your odds by cashing out early?
Cash out early, and yes, you boost your chances of doing so successfully, but that doesn’t translate into beating the underlying maths model. The house edge is always in place, and the high targets that result in bigger payouts are far harder to reach.
What else should I consider?
The fundamentals! Choosing a reliable online crypto casino with the Crash games that appeal to you, and are verified, tested and positively reviewed by the player community, with great customer service and clear processes. With so many dodgy casinos out there, you really must choose a good one, like this list of tried and trusted providers below
What to Do Now?
When you’re playing Crash games, keep probability in mind and use the simple 0.99/multiplier formula to work out the distribution easily. As a loose rule of thumb, at 1x, just under half will hit the double multiplier, just under 10% will hit the 10x, and under 1% will get to 100x.
And as the simulation shows, the game tends to deliver thousands of smaller crashes and the occasional mega multiplier – but experienced players know that these are queued up completely randomly and every round is independent.
Endless low crashouts don’t mean there’s a huge one coming up!
When you remember that these ‘games of chance’ are actually driven by complex mathematical software that’s pre-programmed and simply running according to its model, those huge multipliers reveal themselves as rare (but highly appealing) occurrences in a much wider trend of sub-2x multipliers.
That’s not to say we can’t keep our hopes up – but it does explain why we game for fun and not to chase income!
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